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Arizona 2022 General Election Preview

Publications - Newsletter | November 2022

Arizona voters will go to the polls on Tuesday, November 8, 2022; however, statewide early voting is already well underway (began October 12).

A significant amount of national attention is once again focused on Arizona this election cycle, especially the United States Senate race where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is seeking a full six-year term.

In November 2020 Kelly won the special election to serve out the remaining two years of the late Senator John McCain’s term. He is now facing Republican nominee Blake Masters in the general election.

While Kelly continues to lead in most polls, the outcome of this race is expected to be very close, and the result may determine which political party will control the U.S. Senate next year.

Additionally, there is a lot of focus on Arizona’s gubernatorial election where Arizona Secretary of State, Katie Hobbs (D), faces off against former local television news anchorwoman, Kari Lake (R), in this very competitive race.

The projected outcome at this point is truly a toss-up. Most of the current polling data has this matchup at either dead even or at least within the margin of error. We will likely not know the result of this race until at least a few days after Election Day.

Arizona voters will also decide on a new secretary of state, attorney general, state treasurer, and superintendent of public instruction, each of whom is expected to make consequential decisions about elections, education, water, energy policy and more.  

All 90 state legislative seats are also up for grabs this election cycle. Currently Republicans control both legislative chambers with razor-thin margins, 31-29 in the House, and 16-14 in the Senate. Due to redistricting, Republicans are likely to continue controlling both chambers with narrow margins; however, there is an outside possibility we could see a 15-15 split in the Senate.

There are also a number of competitive congressional races. Republicans are hoping favorable changes from redistricting can help them regain the majority in Arizona’s U.S. House delegation.

Incumbent Democrats, Tom O’Halleran and Greg Stanton, are both facing serious challengers in their newly formed districts, that now slightly favor Republicans. Additionally, the congressional district which is currently represented by retiring Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick now leans in favor of the GOP.

With so much at stake, including 10 statewide ballot initiatives (the highest number of measures on the ballot since 2010), Arizona will be one of the most closely watched states on Election Night.

Arizona 2022 General Election Preview